Market Analysis Review

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 04.03.2025

| 04 March, 2025 at 11:45 GMT

EURUSD

EURUSD was little changed today, trading at $1.0492 after positive closing on Monday. Inflation in EZ came at 2.4% in February, which was higher than the estimates and increased by 0.5% MoM after being contracted by -0.3% in January. All EZ leaders will remain busy & cautious about what is next for Ukraine. Trump announced he will pause the military aid to Ukraine until Ukraine’s leaders demonstrate a good faith commitment according to the US officials. Unemployment from EZ for the month of January  will be released later today. 

1H price action remained bullish, approaching from overbought level on 1H RSI. 1H trend index remained bearish, but the daily one was bullish. The next target is $1.2520. 

USDJPY

For the second consecutive day, USDJPY traded lower at 149.15 after mixed data from Japan & falling in US bond yields as well. Capital spending in Japan contracted by -0.2% in Q4 which may indicate to more monetary tightening , if this is the case then JPY may gain according to supply-demand . At the same time, consumer confidence in Japan declined in February to the lowest level in two years. JGB’s performance showed that the markets are still expecting higher rates ahead by BoJ. 

Mixed traders’ forecasts prevailed between fully weekly bearish & mixed monthly approach with 23% bearish & 54% bullish. Price action is still edging lower , targeting 148.70. 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD was little changed today at $1.2697, the highest level in ten weeks. As UK remained less exposure to the US tariffs than EU, China & Mexico , GBP was in better position than other currencies with better weekly performance than EURUSD, AUDUSD &  NZDUSD. S&P global manufacturing PMI in the UK slightly improved in February, however it remained below 50. 

Resistance at $1.2670 was done, the next target will be $1.2720. $1.2650 & $1.2580 are support levels. Daily trend index remained bullish, ut traders’ sentiments remained mostly bearish.

Gold

After closing higher on Monday, gold maintained its gains & rose to $2897 per ounce on Tuesday. Mixed data from the US supported higher gold & sent USD weaker with weaker than expected in ISM manufacturing, and higher paid prices in manufacturing which represent the future inflation. Trump’s tariffs on Mexico & Canada will be effective today, tariffs by 25% on the exports  to the US. Such global trade chaos is likely to support gold’s bullish attitude. 

Daily trend index was bullish, however traders’ forecast remained surprisingly bearish. Behavior of the traders- speculators aim higher to $2915.

Silver

Silver was little changed today, trading at $31.67 per ounce. China hits back against Trump’s tariffs with 15% on the US exports to China which means that the  supply & demand for silver will be uncertain. The disruption of global supply chain may have positive impact on prices due to expected  shortage, however that’s not going to be sustainable. Keep an eye on China’s exports & imports on Friday. 

Daily trend index was bullish, but volatility is shirking.  Price action remained slow & cautious.

Oil – WTI

Crude oil prices fell today by more than -1% , WTI $67.65 PB, three-month low, Brent $70.73 PB. OPEC+ said that it will proceed with unwinding 2.2 million barrels a day in output cut starting April 1. Global trade chaos materialized  after China retaliated & imposed 15% tariffs on the US exports to China, and 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico by Trump’s admin will be effective today, Tuesday, 4th March. Weekly crude oil inventories by API will be due later today. Global  trade uncertainty is not what investors are looking for. 

Last major support was executed, 1H price action kept falling to oversold level ( below 30 on 1H RSI), supported by bearish trend index as well. $67.15 will be the next support. Traders’ forecasts were bullish, mainly in one month forecast, which has not yet materialized.

DAX

EU major stock indexes fell sharply today , DAX -1.75%, FR40 -1% and Spain index -1% after China retaliated to Trump’s tariffs & imposed 15% tariffs on US imports.  Yesterday, DAX closed higher by 2.6% at new record high 23147, supported by heavy defense stocks , EU leaders are likely to increase their defense budgets. Germany’s manufacturing PMI improved in February, still in contractionary territory below 50. We keep an eye on the political developments & global reactions  to tariffs. 

Our target was executed, and profit taking is happening today & targeting 22600 then 22420. Daily trend index remained strongly bullish, but the hourly one was bearish due to global uncertainty.

Nasdaq

US stock futures traded slightly higher today after fell sharply on Monday, Dow Jones -1.4%, SPX -1.7% and Nasdaq lost -2.6% after Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada will be effective on Tuesday , March 4th ., and he  added another 10% on China’s as well. ISM manufacturing in the US came weaker than the estimates in February and manufacturing new orders index  reached 48.6 in February , falling from 55.1 in January. Traders are likely to remain on high alert due to global tariffs & retaliation. 

Both indexes, hourly & daily trend indexes remained bearish, and volatility was high. Price action supported further drop to 20200. Short-lived correction may happen , targeting 20720. Higher volatility with considerable risks ahead.

BTCUSD

Major cryptocurrencies fell again today, BTC $83570, Eth $2094 , Cardano $0.8186 and XRP $2.35 . According to Crypto news, SEC’s cryptocurrency regulations efforts begin with first roundtable this month, SEC crypto task force. Traders should keep in mind that cryptocurrencies remained high- risk , high-volatile & speculative assets which means that the global trade chaos due to tariffs is unlikely to be bullish factor. It is still too early to consider crypto as safe-haven assets.  

Velocity of the price action supports further drop to $78900 ( support). Correction may target again $86700. 1H RSI is near by oversold level now . Weekly market forecasts remained entirely  bearish with average forecast at $77K , monthly ones were divided.