Market Analysis Review

Daily Market Report: Expert Technical & Fundamental Insights – 31.01.2025

| 31 January, 2025 at 12:00 GMT

EURUSD

EURUSD is trying to recover, trading slightly higher today at $ 1.04. As expected ECB cut the rates to 2.75% from 3%, fourth straight time of reducing the rates. In the meantime, EZ GDP in Q4 fell to 0% QoQ, and 0.9% YoY, weaker than the estimates at 1%. CPI from Germany, EZ biggest economy is due later today. EURUSD is still down by almost -1% in a week. The more the weakness in the EZ economy, the more the dovish ECB is likely to remain.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded higher today & rose to 154.68 as the Fed kept the interest rates unchanged & the US bond yields remained elevated as well. Inflation in Tokyo increased by 3.4% in January, accelerated to 11 – month high & supported further hawkish stance by Bo, in other words, Yen could strengthen further. As long as US bond yields don’t fall, the strength of USD is likely to remain intact. Beware of the markets’ risks due to new tariffs , orchestrated by the US President Trump.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD rose today & traded at $1.2434 amid tight volatility. While the markets are expecting further cuts by BoE in February, the traders’ focus is likely to stay on the US plans of new tariffs & its impact on the global economy & trade as well. Interest rates in the UK are still higher than EZ , Japan and Canada. That’s why the carry trade remained one of the best options for traders, mainly vs Yen.

Gold

How was the performance of gold this week? Gold is still up by 1% in a week, trading little changed today at $2797 per ounce, approaching again from $2800 per ounce all-time high. The markets realized before that the new US tariffs on China, Mexico & Canada will just complicate global trade & could send the global inflation higher in a new cycle of sticky inflation, that was a good scenario for gold to maintain 6.6% of gains in 2025. Technically speaking, 1H RSI started falling from an overbought level, where the correction to $2770 may occur again.

Silver

Silver fell & traded lower today at $31.56, beating gold in its weekly performance as silver advanced by 3% in a week, vs 1% in gold. What matters to silver’s traders is not only the tariffs on China by Trump’s new administration, what matters more is the growth in China, and how the Chinese government will support the economy in 2025 & facing the new – trade war with America. China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, weaker than December at 50.1. Technically speaking, price action still supports further advance, while 1H RSI is falling which means that the correction to $31.40 could happen, however the trend remained bullish.

Oil – WTI

Crude oil prices slightly increased today, WTI $72.90PB, Brent$76.02 PB, but both benchmarks are down by almost -3% in a week. OPEC+ meeting will be held on February 3. It will be a very big event as President Trump pressures to lower oil prices, will OPEC respond to Trump’s pressure? According to the EIA, US weekly crude oil inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week after it fell by 1 million barrels two weeks earlier. Price action has not shown bullish behavior by the traders. $72.50 is support , $73.90 is resistance.

DAX

DAX traded unchanged today at 21723 after closing higher on Thursday. Busy day ahead from Germany with the release of retail sales, inflation and unemployment rate as well. As the ECB decision was highly expected, the DAX index response was almost muted. 1H RSI is trading now at overbought level ( 74) , however if correction happens, it is likely to be limited. DAX is still trading at record -high. No major support before 21100 (1H chart).

Nasdaq

US stock futures traded higher today after positive closing on Thursday, Dow Jones 0.38%, SPX 0.5% and Nasdaq gained by 0.25%, US stock indexes performed well in the first month of the year, Dow Jones 5.8% SPX 3.7% and Nasdaq 3.2% even if the tech sector remained busy by AI chaos & new efficient AI models by the Chinese firm DeepSeek. Important US figures will be due later today, the most important will be the core PCE that tracks the US inflation , not to forget the personal spending & income. Price action is still heading higher & targeting 21770.

BTCUSD

The major cryptocurrency traded weaker today, Bitcoin $104248, Eth $3240 , Cardano fell by 2% to $0.9468 and Ripple lost -3.6% to $3.06. Since the beginning of 2025, BTC gained 11.7%, followed by 12.4% in Cardano & 47% in XRP, while Eth is still down by -2.6% YTD. According to CoinDesk, Elon Musk’s dad eyes $200M raise from “ MUSKIT “ memecoin to go beyond markets, that’s another bullish sign. Crypto market cap is still at record -high $3.55 trillion. 1H Price action could take BTC lower to $103,500 for day-traders.